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Diplomatic Hopes Trigger Sharp Oil Sell-Off

Signs of a potential thaw in the U.S.-Iran standoff sent energy markets into a tailspin Monday. With officials from both nations signaling a willingness to negotiate, traders shed risk, erasing weeks of gains that had been fueled by fears of imminent military escalation across the Persian Gulf.

Diplomatic Hopes Trigger Sharp Oil Sell-Off

Crude and RBOB futures plunged more than 6% during the session, while ULSD futures retreated by roughly 4%. The December West Texas Intermediate contract dropped $6.75 to $97.37/bbl, and January Brent crude fell $7.32 to $106.11/bbl. RBOB futures slid by more than 20cts/gal, and ULSD contracts saw losses nearing the 20ct mark.

This shift in sentiment follows weekend comments from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who noted President Trump’s preference for a diplomatic resolution. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi echoed this potential for compromise, suggesting an agreement remains within reach. The market is currently balancing the prospect of a cooling geopolitical risk premium against the lingering threat to energy supply routes. Rania Gule, senior market analyst at XS.com, expects continued volatility with a corrective bias as long as the diplomatic window remains open.

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