AOC Edges JD Vance in Hypothetical 2028 Matchup, Poll Finds

The early survey offers a snapshot, not a forecast: the election is nearly three years away, and the two have not announced plans to run. Vance is widely viewed as a potential successor to President Donald Trump, while Ocasio-Cortez, a New York Democrat and self-described democratic socialist, has not settled on a 2028 path.

The poll found support for Ocasio-Cortez among some voters who backed Trump in 2024. Eight percent of those voters said they would choose her over Vance. She also led among people who did not vote in 2024, with 52% support, according to the survey.

The results showed close competition among voters without college degrees, a group Trump carried 56% to 42% in 2024. Ocasio-Cortez led Vance among Hispanic voters, 64% to 36%, and by 16 points among voters ages 18 to 29. A Yale youth poll released the previous week also found her the preferred candidate among voters ages 18 to 35, though she has trailed Kamala Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom in early polling of Democratic contenders across all age groups.

Ocasio-Cortez’s future remains open. Axios reported in September that she was weighing a presidential campaign or a primary challenge to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. She has campaigned nationally with Sen. Bernie Sanders under the “Fight Oligarchy” banner. CNN pollster Harry Enten said in September that she had “a very real shot in 2028,” citing changes among Democratic voters and dissatisfaction with party leadership.

A separate Associated Press/NORC poll last week found that 31% of voters gave Trump positive marks on the economy, a record low, according to the report.