Ford Braces for Profit Slide as EV Demand Cools

Wall Street anticipates that Ford will report fourth-quarter revenue of $43.6 billion, a sharp decline from the $48.2 billion recorded during the same period last year, according to FactSet. Net income is projected to fall to $680.5 million, down from $1.82 billion a year ago. These figures suggest adjusted earnings of 18 cents per share, reflecting a tightening margin environment as the company navigates a volatile transition in its product lineup.

Pivoting from EVs to Hybrids

The financial pressure follows a strategic retreat from aggressive electrification. Ford’s total U.S. sales fell 5.3% in January, highlighted by a 69% collapse in EV sales. In response to waning consumer interest, the company halted production of the all-electric F-150 Lightning and is now prioritizing hybrid and extended-range models to stabilize its market share. This pivot aims to align production with actual buyer demand rather than ambitious internal targets.

Beyond market shifts, external shocks have pressured the bottom line. A major fire at an aluminum plant in Oswego, New York, operated by supplier Novelis, forced Ford to adjust its production schedules. The automaker stated that the resulting shortage of materials accelerated its move toward gas-powered and hybrid vehicles, which require less aluminum than their battery-heavy counterparts.

Despite these headwinds, Ford shares have gained 4.2% over the last three months, recently trading near $13.70. While management maintains that the underlying business remains robust, the company previously warned that tariffs and the Oswego fire created unexpected obstacles that bogged down earnings through the end of 2023.